IEA Warns of Decades-Long Oil and Gas Surge Amid Retreat from Climate Goals

London, UK – November 13, 2025 – Global demand for oil and gas is projected to increase for the next 25 years unless the world undergoes a fundamental change in its energy course, according to a stark new scenario outlined by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The influential energy watchdog’s latest assessment, reported by the Financial Times, highlights a concerning trend of fading international commitment to climate change objectives, potentially jeopardizing efforts to curb global warming.

The IEA's warning comes as nations grapple with energy security concerns, economic volatility, and the significant investment required for a rapid transition to cleaner energy sources. Its new outlook presents a sobering reality: without intensified policy action and investment in renewable energy, the world is locked into a fossil fuel trajectory that contradicts established climate targets.

A Troubling Projection for Global Emissions

The core finding of the IEA’s report is that under current policies and observed national commitments, the planet's appetite for oil and gas will not peak and decline in line with the Paris Agreement goals. Instead, demand is set to continue its upward trajectory, challenging the feasibility of limiting global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, above pre-industrial levels.

This prolonged reliance on fossil fuels would inevitably lead to higher greenhouse gas emissions, exacerbating the risks of more frequent and intense extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and ecosystem degradation. The IEA, which typically advises governments on energy policy, has previously pushed for swifter transitions, making this latest, more pessimistic scenario a significant indicator of the current global energy landscape.

The Erosion of Climate Commitment

The IEA's assessment attributes this extended fossil fuel reliance to a "fading commitment to climate change." This retreat is visible in several areas:

• Policy Stagnation: A slowdown in the introduction of new, ambitious climate policies in key economies.
• Investment Shifts: Reduced investment momentum in renewable energy projects and energy efficiency measures, often due to economic headwinds or geopolitical priorities.
• Geopolitical Factors: The ongoing energy crises and supply chain disruptions have prompted some nations to prioritize immediate energy security, often through increased domestic fossil fuel production, over long-term climate goals.
• Public and Political Will: A perceived weakening of political will and public consensus in some regions to enact the drastic changes needed for a rapid energy transition.

This scenario represents a significant departure from the IEA's "Net Zero Emissions by 2050" roadmap, published in 2021, which called for no new oil and gas fields to be approved for development. The new report suggests the world is veering off that ambitious path, making the 2050 net-zero target increasingly difficult to achieve.

Economic and Environmental Repercussions

The implications of this trajectory are vast, spanning economic stability, environmental health, and international relations. Continued reliance on volatile fossil fuel markets could expose economies to future price shocks and supply disruptions. Environmentally, the sustained increase in emissions poses an existential threat to vulnerable communities and ecosystems worldwide.

Experts warn that delayed action will only increase the costs and complexities of climate mitigation in the future. Investment in renewable technologies, grid infrastructure, and carbon capture solutions needs to accelerate dramatically to alter this course.

"The IEA's report serves as a critical wake-up call," commented Dr. Anya Sharma, an energy policy analyst at the Global Climate Institute. "It underscores that without immediate, concerted, and sustained policy interventions from governments, we are effectively choosing a future of continued warming and heightened climate risks. The window for a managed, orderly transition is rapidly closing."

Path Forward: Renewed Urgency and Policy Action

Despite the bleak forecast, the IEA's report implicitly calls for renewed urgency. It emphasizes that a different future is still possible through a dramatic shift in global energy strategies. Key areas for action include:

• Accelerated Renewable Deployment: Massive scaling up of solar, wind, and other renewable energy sources.
• Energy Efficiency: Robust policies and investments to reduce energy consumption across all sectors.
• International Cooperation: Reinvigorated global partnerships to share technology, finance, and expertise for the energy transition.
• Carbon Pricing and Regulation: Stronger market signals and regulatory frameworks to disincentivize fossil fuels and promote clean alternatives.

The challenge now lies in whether nations can rekindle their climate ambition and translate rhetorical commitments into tangible policy changes and investment flows, effectively steering away from the path of decades-long oil and gas growth towards a sustainable energy future.